AFCON 2023: Should semi-finalists dread accumulated fatigue?

Jose Peseiro’s Super Eagles have played the fewest minutes among the semi-finalists, and Cote d’Ivoire have been on the pitch the longest, but a deeper look reveals instructive details.

Much has been made about the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finalists comprising entirely of previous winners. Tournament hosts Ivory Coast have won the continental showpiece twice, Nigeria are three-time champions, South Africa claimed the title in 1996, and DR Congo last reigned supreme in 1974.

There was affection for Bubista’s Cape Verde potentially progressing to their first Cup of Nations semis, while Mali sought another shot at making the final since losing the 1972 decider to Congo. Neither outcome materialised, and the competition is left with erstwhile champions.

Be that as it may, this piece does not intend to delve into history as the competition nears its culmination. Instead, it is keen to examine an aspect often ignored: physical fitness. A lot of analysis is placed on the tactical match-ups and the individual strengths of each side, sometimes placing players’ state of health in the backseat.

This piece seeks to examine three things: the teams that have played the most minutes, the players featuring in 80% of their teams’ total minutes in punishing conditions and the mileage of the most used XIs in the last three weeks — all minus stoppage time. 

Excluding additional time, a cursory look at the total time spent on the pitch for every side places Ivory Coast ahead of the other nations in the last four. The Elephants needed extra time against Senegal and Mali, taking accumulated game time to 510 minutes. This eclipses DR Congo and South Africa (480 minutes), both playing extra time in the round of 16 and quarter-final, respectively and the Super Eagles, advancing to the last four after 180 minutes in the knockout rounds and 450 altogether.

There is an undoubted inclination to fear for Ivory Coast’s prospects before facing the Leopards and feel good about Nigeria’s chances against Bafana Bafana. However, a far more nuanced analysis is required.

Nigeria vs South Africa

Monday night’s news that Victor Osimhen’s abdominal discomfort makes him doubtful for Wednesday’s semi-final meeting with South Africa puts Nigeria in a precarious position. It resurrects frustrations about Jose Peseiro’s egregious management of the side, with potential replacements — Terem Moffi and Kelechi Iheanacho — playing zero minutes en route to the competition’s semis and the less mobile Paul Onuachu featuring for 15 minutes.

READ MORE: Nigeria advance, but Jose Peseiro's 'small squad' strategy may be starting to backfire

The above representation shows that 20 players have been utilised by Peseiro, with the Portuguese making use of eight team members for 80% of Nigeria’s 450 minutes. However, closer inspection shows that Zaidu Sanusi (343 minutes), Moses Simon (356) and Ademola Lookman (358) nearly creep into the category of having played 360 minutes or more for the Super Eagles.

Eleven players have started at least four of Nigeria’s six games, a joint-high among the semi-finalists, pointing to Peseiro’s preference for a select few despite having 25 in the squad (22 outfield players). Even though the Portuguese’s 10 changes to the starting XI are eclipsed only by Ivory Coast’s 15, that number is distorted by four alterations to the line-up for Guinea-Bissau and the reinstatement of William Troost-Ekong, Sanusi, Alex Iwobi and Lookman in the round of 16.

Peseiro has since started the same side against Cameroon and Angola, with his first substitution in those fixtures strikingly not coming until the 80th minute. After the physical exertion and mental effort to stay compact in those fixtures, it was no surprise the players looked to be running on empty against the Palancas Negras.

As for South Africa, you wonder if Hugo Broos’ men have anything left in the tank. The Belgian has made earlier substitutions than Peseiro in the competition’s knockout games — 70th minute against Morocco and 63rd against Cape Verde — but the AFCON 2017-winning manager has not altered his starters since Bafana Bafana’s second game at the finals — with Grant Kekana and Thapelo Morena replacing Siyanda Xulu and Thapelo Maseko, who started their tournament opener against Namibia.

Those minimal changes since the group phase and the 1996 champions playing 120 minutes a day after Nigeria’s quarter-final points to the South Africans being in worse condition than the Super Eagles. That suggestion is underscored by 10 of the team’s 19 utilised players partaking in 80% (384 minutes) of the side’s 480 minutes and 11 team members playing from the off in four games or more.

While the Super Eagles may be flagging, Broos’ side risk total burnout in the semis. How about the other semi-finalists?

Ivory Coast vs DR Congo

The Elephants are the most fascinating side to analyse. Even though the host nation avoided penalties against Mali, they have fallen behind against every opponent since their second game on home soil, conceding the first goal against Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Senegal and the Eagles, and have played an extra 30 minutes in their knockout fixtures.

Ivory Coast's jarring call to jettison Jean-Louis Gasset and install Emerse Fae before realising their qualification fate in the group stage possibly explains the Elephants’ continued alterations at AFCON 2023. 

Gasset made two personnel adjustments to the Elephants’ tournament-opening victory over Guinea-Bissau before following that with five changes for the damaging 4-0 loss to Equatorial Guinea. A further five tweaks were made to the starting lineup for Fae’s first game in charge against deposed African champions Senegal, and the ex-Ivory Coast international made three alterations in their quarter-final win over Mali.

Interestingly, the upshot of the hosts seeking the right balance at centre-back and a mid-tournament sacking means the Elephants arguably go into the semi-finals fresher than everyone else. Only five players — Yahia Fofana (510), Evan Ndicka (510), Ghislain Konan (474), Franck Kessie (437) and Seko Fofana (469) — have played 80% (408 minutes) of the team’s 510 minutes and just six have played from the off in at least four fixtures. 

Of the remaining nations at AFCON 2023, Ivory Coast are the only side with up to five team members of their most used XI not hitting 300 minutes of accumulated match action.

Interestingly, the Elephants’ semi-final opponents are the only other side in that category, with three players not reaching that 300-minute mark. However, five members of Sebastien Desabre’s side have played 480 minutes, while seven of their 20 utilised players have featured in 80% of the team’s total game time.

Desabre has leaned on nine team members to start four games or more, which is fewer than Nigeria and South Africa’s 11 but higher than Ivory Coast’s six. 

While the Leopards outrank only South Africa for fewer modifications to their XI (seven), DRC have typically named changed sides since their third fixture at the finals after going unchanged in their opening two group fixtures, and first substitutions in the knockouts have come in minute 65 against Egypt and just before the hour in the win over Guinea last time out. Desabre’s troops ought to have enough to compete against the Elephants.

On the face of it, Ivory Coast should be most affected by accrued minutes leading up to Wednesday’s fixtures owing to extra time in every knockout round. However, South Africa and Nigeria instead risk overwork after exertions before the semis, and how both nations navigate their ties should make for fascinating viewing.

Indeed, not everything is as it seems.