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Despite a false start against Equatorial Guinea, the underlying numbers are promising for the Super Eagles heading into their second group-stage fixture against the Elephants on Thursday.
For anyone of a Nigerian persuasion, there is a tendency to expect the worst or look at a situation through a lens of negativity. That held true after the Super Eagles’ 1-1 draw against Equatorial Guinea at the Africa Cup of Nations.
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18:15 - 14.01.2024
AFCON 2023: 3 tactical mistakes Peseiro made in Super Eagles draw against Equatorial Guinea
The Super Eagles of Nigeria failed to defeat lowly Equatorial Guinea and questions must be asked of head coach Jose Peseiro.
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22:09 - 15.01.2024
AFCON 2023: Leave coaching and become a pastor - Nigerians blast Jose Peseiro over comment
Nigeria shared spoils with Equatorial Guinea in the first game of the Africa Cup of Nations.
The Super Eagles’ underwhelming run under Jose Peseiro
Admittedly, Jose Peseiro’s troops are flawed, and this iteration may never wholly gain supporters’ trust. However, Sunday’s performance was one of the better showings under the Portuguese boss.
Critics of the former Porto trainer would point to yet another game the 63-year-old has failed to win — the latest draw extends the unwanted run to four official games — with the Super Eagles winless since the 3-2 friendly victory over Mozambique in October.
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Without a victory in competitive games since the 6-0 beatdown of Sao Tome and Principe in September, the worrying run threatens to end Nigeria’s AFCON 2023 run before it begins. Despite the lessened expectations, the minimum target was a place in the first knockout round, and failure to achieve that ends a 14-tournament run since the West African nation were eliminated early at the 1982 finals in Libya.
In short, whenever the Super Eagles have played at the Cup of Nations in the last four decades, they have progressed to the knockout rounds. Despite the continued criticism of Peseiro and the alarm raised after the release of the manager’s XI on Sunday, the performance should be taken in isolation.
Why the Super Eagles should be confident against Ivory Coast
The conspicuous metric that stood out was the sheer volume of clear-cut chances fashioned and missed, seven and six, respectively. Nigeria’s Expected Goals (xG) was 3.52, so far outdoing everyone else at the time of writing, and their Expected Goals Against (xGA) was 0.26, the second-lowest at the finals.
Given that the broad strategy behind every manager’s approach is to limit the opponent’s chances at one end and create as many goalscoring opportunities as possible at the other, Peseiro’s plan worked in Abidjan on Sunday.
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23:09 - 16.01.2024
Ivory Coast vs Nigeria: 3 reasons for optimism as Super Eagles take on tournament hosts
Nigeria's match against Ivory Coast has been a cause of concern, but there are still reasons to keep hope alive
Nzalang Nacional may be inexperienced at this level, but they went into AFCON 2023 as one of the form teams on the continent, undefeated since 2022 and entering the finals on an 11-game sequence without a loss. The last defeat came in qualifying against Tunisia, in which the Carthage Eagles fashioned six big chances in their eventual 4-0 success in Rades.
However, what followed was commendable. The Equatoguineans kept three clean sheets in their subsequent five games, including an admirable 1-0 success over the North African side, limiting opponents to five clear-cut chances across rounds two to six.
That defensive structure was no problem for the Super Eagles, who got into dangerous situations fairly comfortably, thus boding well for Thursday’s encounter with tournament hosts Ivory Coast and the final round against Guinea-Bissau. This is underscored by Nigeria’s touches in the opposition box (31) in Sunday’s group opener, behind only Egypt (32), Morocco (33) and the home side (38), validating the eye test despite the disappointing outcome.
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Ivory Coast vs Nigeria
Facing the Ivory Coast on Thursday presents another challenge for the Super Eagles, with tournament football at this level unforgiving if you fail to convert presentable opportunities. The Elephants profited from praiseworthy finishing against Guinea-Bissau, scoring twice from xG of 0.8, underscored by Seko Fofana’s outstanding goal after four minutes and Jean-Philippe Krasso’s acrobatic strike just before the hour.
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08:06 - 15.01.2024
AFCON 2023: Why the Super Eagles risk not qualifying from group stages after draw with Equatorial Guinea
The Super Eagles of Nigeria dropped valuable points against Equatorial Guinea which could seriously affect their chances of qualifying out of Group A of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations.
Even though Peseiro’s in-game substitutions on Sunday could be questioned — Calvin Bassey was surprisingly introduced at left-back instead of Bruno Onyemaechi when the Super Eagles were dominating, and Samuel Chukwueze was ineffectual after replacing Moses Simon — and the three-time West African champions sweat over the fitness of Victor Osimhen and Alhassan Yusuf, there were more positives than negatives in their tournament opener.
Having made a blistering start at AFCON 2021, with Simon the dominant player as the African giants recorded a statement victory over Egypt in their first game, Nigeria have not begun as strongly two years later.
“Côte d’Ivoire has excellent players, our objective will be to be more efficient in front of goal, not to miss the opportunities we create,” Osimhen, wasteful against Nzalang Nacional, said before facing the hosts on Thursday.
The Super Eagles should get better as the competition progresses. And that is not a bad thing in tournament football.
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