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Fulham scored in the opening minute against Arsenal last weekend, and Manchester United should relish the possibility of finding the net at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday despite their broader challenges.
As weird as it seems, Fulham finding the back of the net at Arsenal last weekend seemed a certainty.
Despite the Cottagers scoring once in 180 minutes of action against Everton and Brentford (198 minutes if you include additional time from both games), Marco Silva’s troops likely fancied their prospects.
The West London side’s expected goals (xG) of 2.0 from their first two games did not inspire much confidence, yet one was almost assured in North London. As it transpired, they got two in a 2-2 draw.
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Arsenal cannot stop conceding at the Emirates
Fulham’s first came inside the opening minute — a gift after Bukayo Saka’s errant pass was picked up by Andreas Pereira, who scored past the wrong-footed Aaron Ramsdale.
It meant Arsenal had to come from behind on their turf to secure the win (which they did not achieve), and Mikel Arteta’s men are still searching for their first home shut-out of the campaign, having defeated Nottingham Forest 2-1 in gameweek one.
A failure to keep clean sheets in consecutive Premier League matches in front of their fans in 2023-24 could be overlooked, but the broader trend reveals a worrying pattern.
Since the start of last season, the Gunners have let in at least a goal in 17 of their 21 league encounters, with Nottingham Forest, Newcastle United, Everton and Wolverhampton Wanderers the four sides not to score in North London.
By contrast, Arteta’s side have kept 11 clean sheets in 20 road fixtures. In that period, Arsenal have produced outstanding performances at Brentford (3-0 win), Chelsea (1-0), Tottenham Hotspur (2-0), Fulham (3-0) and particularly at Newcastle, defeating the Magpies 2-0 at St James’ Park.
Indeed, it is incongruous that the Premier League contenders’ home and away shut-outs appear disharmonious, and you wonder if it would hinder their title aspiration.
Arsenal compared to Manchester City and previous Premier League winners
Unlike the Gunners, Manchester City — the side Arsenal seek to usurp — have had more home clean sheets at the Etihad Stadium than their principal challengers. However, Pep Guardiola’s troops prevented seven sides from scoring in Manchester last season — only three more than Arteta’s men.
Throw in the Cityzens’ 1-0 triumph over Newcastle United in gameweek two, and Guardiola’s side have kept eight clean sheets at the Etihad in 20 games. Admittedly, it is higher than Arsenal’s four, but the marginal difference suggests the Gunners’ statistic is somewhat overblown.
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Interestingly, Man City’s seven home shut-outs in 2022-23 was a drop-off from the previous season (11) and 2020-21 (10). But the dip did not cost Guardiola’s men their third straight Premier League triumph.
A look at the league’s three preceding champions — Liverpool, Chelsea and Leicester City — presents fascinating numbers. Jurgen Klopp’s Reds kept seven clean sheets, the Blues prevented opponents from scoring in eight of 19 games at Stamford Bridge in 2016-17, and the Foxes had nine shut-outs in the previous year.
Even though the Merseyside club were runaway leaders in the 2019-20 season, Klopp’s men conceded in 12 of 19 games at Anfield, with the team’s first clean sheet on home turf coming in their ninth fixture as hosts — a 2-0 success against Watford in December.
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While Arsenal’s four clean sheets fall below those of previous Premier League champions, the margin is insignificant, especially as the top sides are broadly more expansive on home soil.
Looking at every Arsenal game at the Emirates last season, the damaging results at home came against Brentford in February and Southampton in April. The 1-1 draw against the Bees could be excused, but the 3-3 tie against eventually relegated Saints was a blow.
However, the away ties at Liverpool and West Ham United hurt Arteta’s team more than the six-goal thriller in North London.
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Be that as it may, the 2-2 draw with Fulham last Saturday was disappointing, even at an embryonic stage of the season. Arsenal had reacted to going behind early but somehow contrived to concede a late leveller against the 10-man Cottagers.
On the one hand, their xG win (3.2-0.6) indicates it was a one-off, but with the stakes so high when competing with Guardiola’s men, those two dropped points could come back to bite the North London side in the backside.
What last season’s statistics reveal about Arsenal’s home and away record
Digging into last season’s underlying numbers, the expected goals against (xGA) data for home and road games highlight an attention-grabbing detail.
According to Fbref, Arsenal’s xGA at home was 19.3, with the accrued xGA for away fixtures 22.9.
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On the surface, this backs up the suggestion that Arteta’s men were far more comfortable at the Emirates than four clean sheets in 19 suggest, even if they will seek to average less than last year’s 1.01 xGA per game at their ground this term.
The fact that Guardiola’s City conceded xGA of 13 from 19 fixtures at the Etihad perhaps shows the standard the Gunners should strive towards beginning from this weekend’s Premier League game with an old foe.
Arsenal vs Manchester United
The Arsenal-Manchester United head-to-head promises another rip-roaring encounter at the Emirates on Sunday, with both fixtures last season producing nine goals.
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The corresponding fixture last term ended 3-2 in the Gunners’ favour, with the final score suggesting that Erik ten Hag’s men matched Arsenal’s performance over 90 minutes. They did not.
Arteta has won all but one home game from four against Man United since his appointment in North London, and the Spaniard’s side are undoubted favourites to defeat a Red Devils side battling injuries and, more significantly, structural issues without the ball.
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This latest instalment of this age-old Arsenal-Manchester United rivalry comes to our screens on Sunday when the Gunners seek their first statement victory of the new campaign.
Some may predict another dominant Arsenal performance — but observers foreseeing that outcome would be unsurprised if it is accompanied by the customary concession of a goal at the Emirates.
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