Failing to sign Osimhen and 4 other reasons Man United will finish outside the Premier League top 4

Manchester United finished a lowly eighth last season, missing out on Champions League qualification and could very well fail to make the top four again this season

As the 2024/25 Premier League season gets ready to roar back onto our TV screens, Manchester United are preparing to start their campaign against Fulham in the first match of the calendar, hoping to steal back the title from arch-rivals Manchester City.

However, given the stiff competition and their showing in the recent Community Shield loss, the Red Devils might need to scale their expectations down to hopefully secure a place in the top four, something that, given these five key observations, would be considered a miracle.

5 reasons why Manchester United will finish outside the top four next season

No proven goalscorers

Manchester United’s top scorers in the Premier League last season were Bruno Fernandes and Rasmus Hojlund, with the Portuguese only scoring six of his 10 goals from open play. Of the teams in the top half of the table, this was the worst tally among top scorers. The next lowest were Crystal Palace, Arsenal, and West Ham, whose top scorers all scored 16 goals.

The lack of dependable goalscorers affected Manchester United immensely, with the Red Devils scoring only 57 goals in the entire campaign, joint-worst in the top 10 alongside the Eagles, and only five more than relegated Luton Town.

Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho were the Red Devils next best goalscorers after Fernandes and Hojlund, pulling in seven goals each, but only the Englishman has real expectations of scoring more this term.

More than the lack of goals, Manchester United will find the lack of chances that their forwards get on the of very worrying. No Manchester United player amassed double-digit expected goals from open play the whole of the last season, with Garnacho’s 8.6xG the most.

Per 90 minutes, Hojlund’s 0.32xG was the highest for Manchester United, a far cry from what is expected at a team in the top four.

To remedy their lack of goals, Manchester United have made the bold move to sign Dutch forward Joshua Zirkzee from Bologna for €42.5 million.

While Zirkzee impressed in spells with Bologna last season, he is still only in the 35th percentile for goals scored among forwards after only 11 league goals last season, while also maintaining an average of 0.29xG per 90 minutes.

Long story short, the Netherlands international is not the man to solve Manchester United’s goalscoring problems, and it is a wonder why they are willing to sit idly by as rivals Chelsea and Arsenal battle for a proven goalscorer like Victor Osimhen.

Manchester United’s injury woes

Last season, Manchester United suffered significant injury problems, especially in defence, where stars like Luke Shaw, Tyrell Malacia, Diogo Dalot, Lisandro Martinez, and Raphael Varane all missed significant chunks of the season, while midfielder Mason Mount only started 5 Premier League games last campaign due to fitness issues and forward Hojlund was also regularly sidelined.

With the new Premier League season set to kick off, Shaw has already booked time off due to injury and could miss the first three games of the campaign, while star signing Leny Yoro, who joined for €62 million this summer, is even worse off and will miss three months of action due to a broken metatarsal.

Manchester United look to have filled the potential gaps with the signings of Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui, but both players also have spotty injury records, part of the reason that Bayern Munich were willing to allow them to move on this summer.

De Ligt missed 80 days of the 2023/24 season to injuries and was plagued with knee ligament strains, an infamously difficult-to-manage injury, while Mazraoui’s struggles also prompted Bayern Munich to sign French full-back Sacha Boey from Galatasaray even before the Moroccan was linked with a move to Manchester United.

The absences at the back and other key areas of the pitch do not appear solved, and it might not take long to again see a centre-back pairing of 36-year-old Jonny Evans and Casemiro again.

Defensive problems

Last season, Manchester United goalkeeper Andre Onana kept only nine clean sheets in 38 Premier League games, but considering the level of defending in front of him, it was a miracle he managed so many.

Despite the low clean sheet count, Onana prevented 4.0 expected goals, meaning that without him, the Red Devils would actually have conceded more goals without the Cameroonian, contrary to popular belief.

The record Premier League champions conceded 17.4 shots per game last season, second only to bottom Sheffield United (17.7) and their 5.16 shots on target conceded per game was the fifth-worst in the entire division, same as their 1.81xG conceded per 90 minutes.

There was a clear problem for Manchester United last season, and their efforts to get more bodies in defence have been a mixed bag, suggesting that they could face similar setbacks in the new season as well.

Midfield problems persist

Manchester United’s current midfield consists of Casemiro, Kobbie Mainoo, Bruno Fernandes, Mason Mount, Scott McTominay, Christian Eriksen, and Hannibal Mejbri.

The latter three Manchester United have been eager to sell or loan to other clubs, while Casemiro showed every one of his 32 years on the pitch last season.

Mount has suffered countless injuries since joining Manchester United last summer and missed 147 days during the season, playing only 756 minutes in all competitions in his first season with the Red Devils, while Mainoo is still only 19 years old, and his obvious talent is no replacement for his lack of experience at the top level.

This leaves Manchester United with Bruno Fernandes as the only midfielder that the Red Devils can truly pin their hopes on for the new season, meaning the team is weakest in midfield, where they want to be strongest, given the nature of the Premier League.

Manchester United have tried to address this problem with moves for midfielders like Manuel Ugarte and Frenkie de Jong, but they have failed on both fronts and could go into the new season with another obvious weakness.

Ten Hag’s tinkering

Despite being in his third season at the club, it is still unclear how Erik Ten Hag wants his Manchester United team to play.

Fluid, attacking and pressing one moment, Manchester United could quickly switch to being on the back foot in a deep block the next, even when the opponents they are playing do not seem to warrant it.

The lack of a clear pattern has previously hampered the Red Devils, especially last season when the players sometimes appeared confused about whether or not to press. Some players were actively trying to win the ball high up, while others dropped deep, allowing teams a lot of space in midfield to dominate the Red Devils.

With more of his favourite players joining the club this summer, Ten Hag might be able to get his points across better to those who have played in previous teams that he has coached to get a more cohesive side.

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