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As the draw opens up, here are some tactical imperatives the Super Eagles must heed if they are to avoid becoming the latest upset victims at AFCON 2023
Going into their quarter-final meeting with Angola, for the first time since the tournament began, Nigeria are outright favourites for the title.
The thinning of the field due to numerous upsets has seemingly carved out a convenient path for the Super Eagles, provided they get past Angola and their semi-final opponent, which will be one of Cape Verde or South Africa.
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02:33 - 31.01.2024
Nigeria now overwhelming favourites to win AFCON 2023 according to Supercomputer
Nigeria's quest for a potential fourth AFCON title has been assessed by Opta's Supercomputer
However, in that path is a warning: nothing can be taken for granted at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON). Even the lowliest of opponents can prove a banana peel if not taken seriously, and Palancas Negras, in addition to being the highest scoring team in the competition, have posted favourable results against the likes of Burkina Faso and Algeria.
With that in mind, here are four tactical keys to success for Jose Peseiro’s side on Friday.
Deny space behind
The Super Eagles already do this quite well. Despite fielding one of the tournament’s highest defensive lines at the beginning of opponents’ possession sequences (all the better to press from), Nigeria are quick to drop back when possession is established in their own third, denying the opposition the opportunity to exploit their defence in behind.
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This will be crucial here: Angola are at their most dangerous when breaking, using the pace and ball-carrying ability of the wingers Gelson Dala and Gilberto, and striker Mabululu is handy at linking up to send them on their way.
Without space to break into and combine with one another, the Sable Antelopes’ front three is a lot less of a concerning proposition.
Stay alert on set-pieces
If you take out penalties – and even they are a part of the classification – Angola have scored from a set-piece in every single one of their matches at AFCON 2023.
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12:30 - 31.01.2024
AFCON 2023: Will Osimhen and Lookman outdo Angola’s record-chasing Mabululu and Dala?
Friday’s battle of the forwards pits the reawakened Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman against Mabululu and Gelson Dala, whose goalscoring exploits have brought Angola this far.
There is something of a pattern, in fact: Pedro Goncalves’ side tend to use set plays as a means to break matches open, enabling their transitional attacking later on in the game.
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Against Mauritania, Dala from the second phase of an improperly cleared corner kick, and from then on Angola broke on their opponents with a vengeance. Against Burkina Faso, Mabululu’s header late in the first half came against the run of play, but put his side in a strong position to go and claim a 2-0 win. Against Namibia, Dala rose highest to head home Fredy’s delivery to complete a quickfire double and seize control of that Round of 16 tie.
The danger is apparent then: if the Super Eagles are to avoid the upset, they must be alive when the ball goes dead.
Exploit Angola's stopper-cover dynamic at centre-back
The Angola centre-back pairing of Kialonda Gaspar and Jonathan Buatu fulfil different roles: the latter engages, while the former covers. However, the understanding between them is not always great, especially when they have to deal with direct passes played early in behind.
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Baghdad Bounedjah took advantage of this time and again in the first half of their opening match, scoring once and having another ruled out for a tight (but correct) offside. However, that was not an isolated incident: when not in a settled deep block, there can be crossed wires and hesitation, as was the case in the incident that led to Neblu’s sending-off against Namibia.
Good thing for Nigeria, then, that they have a striker in Victor Osimhen who thrives on quick service into space, as well as early crosses. If the Super Eagles find their star striker early and often, and he curbs his penchant for running offside, he could well make hay against Palancas Negras.
Maximise transitions
One thing stands out when watching Angola: when they attack, they get a lot of bodies forward.
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From their 4-3-3 base shape, their attacking phases will often see both no.8s – Estrela and set-piece specialist Fredy – enter the opposing penalty area, and even the ball-side full-back. The other full-back will typically sit back in this instance, but that means Angola have four men back, one short of what is expected for a balanced rest defence. The upshot of this is that, if the Super Eagles counter efficiently, there is space to be had both between the lines and in the channels.
This is yet another facet of Angola’s play that lines up with something Nigeria typically does well, and so, in theory, this really should be about execution rather than tactical adaptation. The dynamic between the front three will need to be stronger than it has been to this point, and it may be a good idea to consider bringing in either of Kelechi Iheanacho or Samuel Chukwueze for Moses Simon, especially considering Angola’s full-backs are not typically a huge source of attacking threat.
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