Nigeria vs South Africa: 5 Key stats that guarantee Super Eagles will play AFCON final

Despite looking like a close encounter on paper, Nigeria's Super Eagles have a clear advantage over South Africa going into the AFCON 2023 semifinal

The Super Eagles of Nigeria face a crunch encounter against rivals South Africa in a bid to reach the final of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, after a decade’s absence at that stage. 

While many predict a close game between Nigeria and South Africa, some important numbers show that the tie is substantially skewed towards a victory for the Super Eagles who have been sensational in many aspects of play in Ivory Coast. Here are 5 key stats that show Nigeria has the upper hand over South Africa:

Big chances created

Super Eagles coach Jose Peseiro was keen for the team to score more goals and be more effective and his point is underpinned by the mindblowing amount of clear cut chances that Nigeria have created in the five AFCON matches so far. 

Nigeria currently top the chart for big chances, after creating an incredible 18 high quality scoring opportunities in only five matches, with the next best team, Morocco, creating 14. Of the countries left in the 2023 AFCON, Nigeria has created by far the most big chances, with DR Congo, the next best with 11, while Wednesday opponents South Africa have only created eight. 

Expected goals

The three-time champions’ high volume of clear chances created has also seen them accumulate the most expected goals in the 2023 AFCON so far, with 8.6xG to Nigeria’s name. 

The Super Eagles have shown a clear ability to unlock defences and will be looking to exploit their superior chance creation abilities in the semifinals against South Africa. However, they will also need forward players to be more clinical in front of goal to fully take advantage of the creativity being displayed by the team. 

South Africa on the other hand have only created chances worth 5.8xG, with 2.3xG of the total coming in one match against Namibia. 

Touches in opposition box

Key to Nigeria’s high chance creation has been their ability to make inroads to their opponents’ penalty areas, with the Super Eagles showing great dexterity at finding space in the box. 

Of the four teams left in the 2023 AFCON semifinals, only DR Congo have managed as many touches in the opposition box as Nigeria, with both teams racking up 119 touches in the opposition penalty area. 

It is also well worth noting that unlike Nigeria, DR Congo have been involved in 30 minutes of extra-time in their dramatic penalty shootout win against Egypt. 

Expected goals against 

At the other end of the pitch, Nigeria’s Super Eagles have been just as superb, if not more. Dogged defensive displays have seen the Super Eagles become the most frugal team, rarely giving the opposition a sniff at goal. 

Nigeria have conceded the fewest expected goals against in the entire AFCON 2023 tournament with 2.5xGA, a better turnover than even teams that only played three matches, despite the Super Eagles playing five games. 

The 2013 champions’ record is outstanding compared to semifinal opponents South Africa, who have conceded the most xG against in the competition with 7.2xGA. . 

Goals against per game

The Super Eagles’ impenetrable nature has also translated to the most cleansheets at the 2023 AFCON with four shutouts so far, and has also seen them concede the fewest goals per game 0.25 goals conceded per game. 

In addition to having a solid defensive structure, Nigeria has also benefited from having the impressive Stanley Nwabali between the sticks, who has pulled off some important saves and often mopped up the few efforts that have threatened the Nigerian goal.  

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