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In Osimhen's absence, it is to Napoli's advantage that Simeone is also injured: it keeps Spalletti from the same mistake he made in the 4-0 AC Milan hammering
After close to a fortnight of speculation, it has now been confirmed: Napoli will be without attacking talisman Victor Osimhen for the first leg of the UEFA Champions League Quarter-final tie against AC Milan.
Napoli suffer Osimhen blow ahead of AC Milan clash
It is a crushing blow. Not only is the Nigeria international Napoli's leading scorer in all competitions, but in his absence the league leaders have looked rather colourless following the international break. While they rebounded from the 4-0 hammering they suffered at the hands of the Rossoneri nine days ago with a win over Lecce, Luciano Spalletti's men were somewhat fortunate to come away with a win, needing an own goal to eke out three points from a game in which they were roundly dominated.
It is that evisceration, suffered on their own turf, that is most relevant now, of course, seeing as they now have to face AC Milan once more. They split wins in their two league matches, but knockout football is a different animal, less reliant on form or tactical cohesion as it is on the ability to surf the waves of momentum. Just ask Real Madrid; as it happens, on sheer weight of European Cup success, Milan are the closest to 14-time champions. Pedigree matters in this environment more than in any other.
It is a shame then that Napoli cannot call upon their leading man for such a momentous occasion. However, if there is a silver lining in all of this, it is that they are also without Giovanni Simeone – the Argentine picked up a knock on a cameo off the bench against Lecce, and is himself absent from the squad. This means Giacomo Raspadori will lead the line: a blessing in disguise, as it keeps Spalletti from making the same tactical error that did him in against Stefano Pioli in their most recent meeting.
It is arguable, in fact, that in both matches since the international break, Spalletti has gotten his choice of replacement for Osimhen wrong. Against Milan, he elected to start Simeone, a more conventional centre-forward who excels at ball-striking. For all that he was the closest Spalletti could get within the squad to fill in for his no.9, it backfired spectacularly for the simple reason that the Nigerian powerhouse is sui generis in that way.
Lacking the same elevation and agility, Simeone was basically playing the Osimhen role, but without all of the massive upside. The Rossoneri simply dropped their defensive line deep, trusting Simon Kjaer and Fikayo Tomori to handle the Argentine physically, and broke with furious speed.
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The play should have been Raspadori instead, especially as Milan have demonstrated a greater vulnerability to movement, as well as the fact that, with the visitors’ midfield seeking to impose themselves on Napoli's, there was space between the lines. The former Sassuolo man, who is a more technical no.10 type, would have relished pulling the visitors' defence out of shape or picking up the ball in space to run at the exposed backline.
As if to illustrate the point, in 13 minutes on the pitch v AC Milan, Raspadori accumulated more xG (0.25 to 0.16) and equaled Simeone’s shot output in a sixth of the time.
Against Lecce, when a striker like Simeone would have been more useful – against a weaker opponent with less talented centre-backs and a high defensive line – Spalletti then selected Raspadori. Consequently, with no proper physicality on the last line and no runs in behind, Napoli looked uncharacteristically toothless as Lecce squeezed the play.
It is worth noting: it is not the case that Napoli are simply incapable of playing without Osimhen. In fact, when it was announced that the Nigerian was injured, there was some justified suggestion that Partenopei might not be just unaffected, but more fluid and unpredictable without him. Obviously that has not materialised, but there was precedent for that belief: Osimhen missed a month through injury to his thigh in September and October, and between them Raspadori and Simeone held down the fort, especially starring in big Champions League wins over Rangers and Ajax in the Group Stage.
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That was much earlier in the season though; as the Serie A top scorer has ratcheted up his production, Napoli have understandably become increasingly dependent on him. At his best, Osimhen’s intensity and athleticism can prove extremely addictive for any team, as he provides such a reliable out in moments when clarity is missing.
There is nothing for it now though. Napoli will simply have to grit their teeth through his absence, while at the same time making a play for history. The stakes are incredibly high, especially with Serie A more or less won, a disquieting reality for a club breaking new ground already. In the absence of their jackhammer, Raspadori’s subtler workings, even if now by default, offer greater possibility on this stage and against this opponent.
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