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The race for the Premier League trophy may already be between two teams, but the battle for European qualification is still raging.
With one or two games remaining, depending on teams with outstanding fixtures, several teams are vying for a coveted spot in continental competitions next season. Here is a look into the remaining possibilities and the permutations that could see these teams secure their European dreams.
Aston Villa are on the cusp of a historic Champions League return, currently holding onto fourth place. However, the fight for fourth and the remaining European spots is far from over. With Tottenham Hotspur clinging to fifth and a nine-point gap separating them from Manchester United in eighth, a dramatic finish awaits the Premier League season.
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Champions League: Top three decided but fourth spot still open
Due to England's coefficient ranking in Europe, only the top four teams in the Premier League will qualify for the prestigious Champions League. This year, that race is all but settled for three spots, with Arsenal and Manchester City locked in a tight battle for the title, while Liverpool are assured of at least a third place finish as other teams cannot mathematically catch them.
The race for fourth is still open though Aston Villa currently occupy that position. However, Tottenham are four points behind with two matches left to play for both sides.
Aston Villa can lock down a Champions League spot for next season if Tottenham loses both their remaining games. Additionally, Villa only needs to collect two points from their final two matches to secure fourth place.
Even if Aston Villa drop points in both their remaining games, Tottenham still face an uphill battle. To overtake Villa, Spurs would need to win their final two matches. Alternatively, they could secure a Champions League spot with four points from their remaining games, but only if their goal difference is significantly better than Villa's.
Europa League: Fifth place holds the key
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Whichever team finishes fifth in the Premier League, currently Spurs, are guaranteed a place in the UEFA Europa League (UEL) group stages next season.
As it stands, the team in sixth place at the end of the season will earn a spot in the UEFA Europa Conference League (UECL). Newcastle United and Chelsea are currently sixth and seventh respectively.
This is the spot that is transferred over from the EFL Cup winners, Liverpool, who are guaranteed a place in the Champions League, to the club in the highest league place not qualifying for a UEFA club competition (which is currently sixth).
Tottenham are in fifth place and while they can still clinch fourth, a fifth-place finish will automatically see them qualify for the group stages of the UEL. This competition offers a chance to play against top European clubs and a potential pathway back to the Champions League if they win.
However, there's a bit more drama surrounding this automatic Europa League spot as sixth-placed Newcastle United and seventh-placed Chelsea could still finish above Tottenham if they fail to get any point from their last two matches.
Tottenham: With a goal difference (GD) of +12, which will reduce if they lose their remaining two matches, Newcastle, who have a +22 GD, and Chelsea, who are also on a +12 GD, could both finish above Spurs if they win both of their matches.
Newcastle: Can finish fifth if Tottenham loses their last matches and they win both of theirs, as the Magpies have a way superior GD.
Chelsea: To finish in fifth, the Blues will need to win their remaining two matches while hoping Tottenham loses their last two matches and Newcastle fail to win both of their remaining two matches.
In the case Tottenham loses their last two matches and Newcastle win both of theirs, the Blues will need to win both of their matches and a swing in goal difference to leapfrog Newcastle to finish in fifth.
However, a sixth-placed finish could lead to Europa League qualification depending on the outcome of the FA Cup final.
FA Cup final will have an impact
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Manchester United's presence in the FA Cup final adds a wrinkle to the equation. If they win the trophy, the UEFA Europa Conference League qualification attached to the Carabao Cup (won by Liverpool) gets bumped down.
Here's how the scenarios play out
Scenario 1: Manchester United finishes top six
If Manchester United manages to finish in the top six of the Premier League alongside an FA Cup win, they will qualify for the Europa League. This would bump the sixth-placed team (currently Newcastle United) into the Europa League as well. The seventh-placed team (currently Chelsea) would then be in the UECL.
Scenario 2: Manchester United finishes outside top six
If Manchester United finishes outside the top six but wins the FA Cup, they will still qualify for the Europa League. However, this only grants them one spot. The team that finishes fifth in the league would then be the other Europa League representative. The sixth-placed team would then inherit the UECL qualification spot (originally from the Carabao Cup).
Europa Conference League: How the qualification unfolds
The UEFA Europa Conference League, a relatively new competition, offers a chance for teams outside the traditional European elite to compete on a continental stage. Here's how the qualification for this competition unfolds:
Sixth place (Normal scenario)
In the most straightforward scenario, the team finishing sixth in the Premier League will qualify for the UECL playoffs. This is because the Europa Conference League spot originally awarded to the Carabao Cup winner (Liverpool) gets passed down.
Sixth place (FA Cup Impact)
As mentioned earlier, if Manchester United wins the FA Cup and finishes outside the top six, the sixth-placed team will actually qualify for the Europa League group stage instead of the playoffs. The seventh-placed team would then inherit the UECL playoff spot.
Seventh place
The team finishing seventh in the Premier League, assuming Manchester United does not win the FA Cup and finish there, will directly qualify for the Europa Conference League playoffs.
With just a few games remaining, the battle for European qualification promises to be a thrilling climax to the Premier League season. From the fight for the final Champions League spot to the scramble for Europa League and Europa Conference League berths, there's plenty of drama left to unfold. The final whistle on the season could see several teams celebrating a ticket to Europe while others miss out by a slim margin.
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